Iceland stock market not looking good

Figure 1: The value of the OMX Iceland 15 from January 1998 to October 2008 (log scale).
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Iceland Stock Market
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Trading in shares of six financial companies on the OMX Nordic Iceland Exchange was suspended on 6 October by order of the FME. On Thursday 9 October, all trading on the exchange was frozen for two days by the government "in an attempt to prevent further panic spreading throughout the country's financial markets". The decision was made to do so due to "unusual market conditions", with share prices having fallen 30 percent since the start of the month. The closure was extended through Monday 13 October due to continuing "unusual market conditions".

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The market reopened on 14 October with the main index, the OMX Iceland 15, at 678.4, compared with 3,004.6 before the closure. This reflects the fact that the value of the three big banks, which form 73.2 percent of the value of the OMX Iceland 15, had been set to zero.

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After a week of very thin trading, the OMX Iceland 15 closed on 17 October at 643.1, down 93% in króna terms and 96% in euro terms from its historic high of 9016 (18 July 2007).

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Source:

If you are interested, I found a link to an OECD report on the environmental performance of Iceland.

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What do people think??

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Comments most welcome !!

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Please check out:

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Combating Climate Change and Boosting Growth Are Natural Allies

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Splitting: 'jobs' versus 'the environment'

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Polar Bear Begs

Nine meals from Anarchy

"Nine Meals from Anarchy: Oil Dependence, climate change and the transition to resilience" was the Schumacher Lecture 2008 (given in Leeds, UK) by Andrew Simms from the New Economics Foundation (NEF: Economics as if people and the planet mattered).

It is a great summary of the problems societies face (both now and in the past) and offers Solutions as if people and the planet mattered.

It is easy to read and has great quotes like this one:

"The invisible hand of the market has been at odds with the invisible heart of the core economy".

Simms suggests the core economy is made up of family, neighbourhood, community and civil society. The core economy is the operating system upon which the money economy depends upon (much like we depend upon the atmosphere). However the money system is corroding the core economy (working longer hours, capitalism promotes individual values over community values, etc).
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The values of the 'money economy' do seem to outweigh the values of the 'core economy' in modern society. Many people seem more concerned with 'interest' and their 'shares' than showing interest in others or sharing.

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In the same way, we often fail to value (and instead take advantage of) the Earth's 'core economy' (its fauna and flora, its forests, its rivers lakes and oceans, its local, regional and global ecosystems) and instead focus on the business/economic 'reality' (i.e. the money economy).

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We put anthropocentric values over ecocentric needs and as a result the Earth's core economy (broadly the environment) suffers - much as many people's work/life balance suffers when money becomes more important than people and community - except the results will be much worse than anything a financial crisis can muster. We need to learn to care about other species and share the Earth much more fairly between all.

Anyway, I hope you find 15 mins to read it.

Enjoy!

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What do people think??
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Comments most welcome !!
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Please check out:
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Combating Climate Change and Boosting Growth Are Natural Allies
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Splitting: 'jobs' versus 'the environment'
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Polar Bear Begs

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Random Man Planet Earth

The 'Black Swan' and the 'Fourth Quadrant'

Sometimes you read something that really gets you thinking . . .

Statistical and applied probabilistic knowledge is the core of knowledge; statistics is what tells you if something is true, false, or merely anecdotal; it is the "logic of science"; it is the instrument of risk-taking; it is the applied tools of epistemology; you can't be a modern intellectual and not think probabilistically—but... let's not be suckers. The problem is much more complicated than it seems to the casual, mechanistic user who picked it up in graduate school. Statistics can fool you. In fact it is fooling your government right now. It can even bankrupt the system (let's face it: use of probabilistic methods for the estimation of risks did just blow up the banking system).

The above is from an essay called THE FOURTH QUADRANT: A MAP OF THE LIMITS OF STATISTICS by Nassim Nicholas Taleb [9.15.08]. It contains two very interesting ideas.

The idea of the 'black swan' (highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact) and the 'fourth quarter' (complex decisions in 'extremistan' [the Black Swan's domain] where statistics are useless and statistical based claims should be seen as hopeless guesses (at best).

Taleb suggests there are two classes of probability domains: Mediocristan and Extremistan.

In Mediocristan, exceptions occur but don't carry large consequences. Add the heaviest person on the planet to a sample of 1000. The total weight would barely change. In Extremistan, exceptions can be everything (they will eventually, in time, represent everything). Add Bill Gates to your sample: the wealth will jump by a factor of >100,000. So, in Mediocristan, large deviations occur but they are not consequential—unlike Extremistan.

Anyway, I thought you might like the link too.

What do you think???

Worried about the Earth ??

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Check out some mind food below

1. Nanotechnology - risks and benefits

2. 'Clean Coal' ???

3. Americans and climate change

4. What is nanotechnology?

5. Peak Oil Debate

6. Limits to growth ???

7. History of Nanotechnology
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More at http://randommanplanetearth.blogspot.com/

Engelbart and the Future of Nanotechnology

I have been reading "Overcoming Bias" (from the University of Oxford: Future of Humanity Institute) for a while now, but yesterday they had a very interesting post by Eliezer Yudkowsky called "Engelbart: Insufficiently Recursive".
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So who is Engelbart?
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Well Douglas Engelbart was a computer pioneer (best know for his invention of the computer mouse) and in the days when computers were just getting started, he had a "vision of using computers to systematically augment human intelligence".
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In 1962 he wrote a paper for the Stanford Research Institute called "Augmenting Human Intelligence: A conceptual framework". I had a read of it last night - it is relatively easy (although it does get more difficult in sections).
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He points out 4 different classes of ways to augment human intelligence:
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1. Artifacts: physical objects that can manipulate things/materials or symbols
2. Language: meaning of symbols
3. Methodology: method for problem solving
4. Training: the conditioning needed by the human being to bring his skills in using artifacts, language and methodology to the point where they are operationally effective.
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Anyway, when looking back on this paper we find that he was biased (hence the post on Overcoming Bias) and his conclusions were therefore incorrect. Yudkowsky suggests Engelbart was incorrect because:
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1. He underestimated how much cognitive work gets done by hidden algorithms running beneath the surface of introspection, and overestimated what you can do by fiddling with the visible control levers (such as his later computer 'mouse' invention).
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2. Engelbart anchored on the way that someone as intelligent as Engelbart would use computers, but there was only one of him - and due to point 1 above, he couldn't use computers to make other people as smart as him.
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Anyway, today I had another look on the site (mainly to read the replies to the above post) and found that the follow-up post "Total Nano Domination" was on the subject of future nanotechnology and avoiding the same types of incorrect assumptions that were made by Engelbart when looking toward the future. I love this site !!
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So the question they pose is this:
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Will the development of nanotechnology go the same way as computers - a smooth, steady developmental curve spread across many countries, no one project taking into itself a substantial fraction of the world's whole progress? Will it be more like the Manhattan Project, one country gaining a (temporary?) huge advantage at huge cost?
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Could one country or company get nanoweapons 'ready' that would give them the same advantage that the Atom Bomb gave the United States at the end of WWII?
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What do you think??
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UPDATE: I just saw Engelbart for the first time (being interview on TV about his mouse invention).

Beware the power of Mars Bars !!

A man who says he eats 10 Mars bars a day has claimed a lack of sugar prompted him to attack his girlfriend when she wore big, Bridget Jones-style knickers instead of a G-string, a British court has heard.
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More here

Nanotechnology

Here are some links to my posts on nanotechnology:

History of Nanotechnology

What is nanotechnology?

Nanotechnology - risks and benefits

What do you all think ???

Comments most welcome !!!

Some good psychology links . . .

I found this great site "Classics in the history of psychology" - an internet resource developed byChristopher D. Green York University, Toronto, Canada.

It has many of the original classic psychology texts including those written by Bandura, Broca, Freud, Galton, Jung, Maslow, Pavlov, Rogers and Skinner (and many others).

It is possible to search by author or topic.

Topics include:

Ancient Thought

Medieval/Renaissance Thought

Modern Philosophical Thought

Behaviorism

Evolutionary Theory

Intelligence Testing

Social Psychology

Psychoanalysis & Psychotherapy

and others too.

Worth checking out if you want to know more about psychology and its history.

http://psychclassics.yorku.ca/index.htm

Obama man

Can he save the world ???

More Isaac Asimov

More from the great man.

Isaac Asimov on Global Warming (1989)

Here is the legend himself, Isaac Asimov speaking about global warming back in 1989.

Note: Humanism is, by its very name, anthropocentric; perhaps we need a more ecocentric world-view.

I agree that we are 'all in this together' and that we have 'more similarities than differences' and think that a world government is the way to solve global problems.

America is in the process of losing its hegemonic power, and will (hopefully) under Obama will come to join the international community more fully to deal with problems such as global warming and poverty.

Any comments ????

Some Ray Bradbury advice

Here is Ray Bradbury speaking at the age of 86.

Some great advice too.

Check it out.

My hot laps in a Porsche Carrera 996 GT3 - Oran Park (46 seconds)

Driver: Peter Fitzgerald has won four national titles, finished runner-up numerous times and notched more than 70 race starts during the Carrera Cup alone. The Fitzgerald Racing team has had multiple successes outside of Carrera Cup, which has included victories in the Bathurst 12 hour and 3 hour production car events.

Thanks Sam !!!

Had a ball !!

Black run ???

Poker cheat ?????

I wouldn't play poker with this man ...

September 29, 2008: the Kahnawake Gaming Commission stated it had found clear and convincing evidence to support a conclusion that between the approximate dates of May 2004 to January 2008, Russ Hamilton was the main person responsible for, and benefitting from, multiple cheating incidents at Ultimate Bet. (http://www.natarem.com/files/kgc.pdf)

Russ Hamilton is a poker player best known for winning the 1994 World Series of Poker main event championship, defeating Hugh Vincent in heads-up play and winning $1 million in first-prize money, as well as his body weight in silver. (here he is in 1994 - he must have been in weight-training for that silver prize.)



Cheats never prosper ???

Greek philosophy's view on 'faith'

"In the teachings of the Bible, in contrast, it is necessary to have faith, utter and uncritical confidence, a conception quite alien to the spirit of Greek philosophy.*"

"* For classical greek philosophy, as for Plato, faith (pistis) is the lowest form of belief, characteristic only of the wholly uneducated, who fail to reflect critically on what they experience or are told. The Jewish-inspired Christian emphasis on faith struck educated pagan observers with astonishment; it represented, in their eyes, the extreme of anti-intellectualism - 'foolishness'."

from page 78

"The Perfectibility of Man"
by John Passmore (1970)

Go Scorpions !!!

After winning the (minor) final in our league of the AFL fantasy competition, the Sydney_Scorpions have had a blinder in the AFL finals dream team fantasy competition scoring 2233 points. This is the Scorpions best week ever (coming 10th overall out of 57,316 people).

Top 10 dream teams:

1. Bundy's on You (SA) 2319
2. Cool as a Cucumber (WA) 2266
3. Coastal Cats (NSW) 2251
4. Pies for Flag (Qld) 2249
5. Watermelons (NSW) 2247
6. Philtan (NSW) 2235
6. Havago (Vic) 2235
8. Mitchhcti (NSW) 2234
8. The Mighty G's (Vic) 2234
10. Sydney_Scorpions (NSW) 2233
10. Wazza's Guns (Vic) 2233

The line up for the Sydney_Scorpions was as follows:

Back
Stevens 124
Fisher 116
Goddard 108
Mattner 70
Hodge 65
Bolton 59
Bock 47

Midfield
Bartel 246 (Captain)
Cross 151
Ablett 129 (Vice Captain)
Swan 110
Corey 105
Harvey 97

Ruck
Fraser 83
Jolly 66

Forward
Giansiracusa 118
Franklin 116
Roughead 109
Petrie 95
Medhurst 81
Johnson 75
Riewoldt 54

With no Cats and no Hawks this weekend, the Scorpions have had to have a major rethink (with 11 new players in all).

Here is the new lineup:

Backs
Fisher
Goddard
Mattner
Bolton
Lake * (new)
Morris (new)
Gilbert (new)

Midfield
Swan (Captain)
Cross (Vice Captain)
Hayes (new)
Cooney (new)
Pendlebury (new)
Kirk (new)

Ruck
Fraser
Jolly

Forwards
Giansiracusa
Johnson
Riewaldt
O'Keefe (new)
Davis (new)
Thomas (new)
Medhurst (new)

*note: Brian Harris legally changed his name before the start of the finals (which is how I missed his 105 points last week)

It is double points this weekend, so hopefully the Scorpions have a good weekend.

Not sure I can repeat that performance again, but we will see how we go.

p.s. Go the Sydney Swans against the Western Bulldogs !!

Some street art from Melbourne (Part 3)

Found the BANKSY !!

Check out more of my pics at

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/28591440@N04/sets/72157606157807298/

Some street art from Melbourne (Part 2)

More of my pics at

http://www.flickr.com/photos/28591440@N04/sets/72157606157807298/

Some street art from Melbourne (Part 1)